Using statistical models to predict future sales

BrainTech, LLC: Using Statistics to build Models of Customer Behavior


Use Multiple Regression to develop models that forecast future sales


We use weather forecasts and time-series and seasonal trends for data analysis


Owen Emlen, Member of BrainTech, LLC
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Weather, Sales Trend demand forecasting

Owen Emlen and his Father, after climbing up Huaynu picchu in PeruOwen Emlen is a software developer with 14 years of experience designing and implementing windows and web applications and services. He began his career as one of four core C++ developers for Microsoft Travel Technologies (which became Expedia.com in 1999) and took a short break from the software development industry to get a Masters degree in Experimental Psychology (with an emphasis in Measurement and Statistical Analysis), which he received in 2005.  Owen has published several articles about game engines and communications protocols related to gaming on Code Project, and is currently working as an Architect and Senior Silverlight Developer for Troppus Software in Superior, Colorado where he works across all tiers of product offerings, including work on a knowledge base authoring system, a smart ticketing call center application, a customer-facing Silverlight client application, a cross-platform java layer, and the WCF service layer. We are currently using Prism and the Unity Framework for all Silverlight applications, and OSGi/Felix in our java layer.

Development-related Publications and Projects:

Current Side Projects:

  • Developer for Tarneeb.com (server-side support and implementation of new features)
  • WPF photo manager and image processing application (personal project, under development at codeplex.com)
  • Continued interest in predictive modeling and exploratory analysis, including intermittent ongoing development of a stock analysis program based on bayesian binomial and multinomial regression

Resume

Education:

  • Masters in Experimental Psychology, Western Washington University, 2005.  Emphasis on Measurement and Statistical Analysis (MESA)
  • Bachelor of Science in Computer Science, Indiana University, 1998.  Graduated with honors in Computer Science, minors in Music Performance and Mathematics

Work/Experience:

 Architect and Senior Software Developer, Troppus Software, 12/2011 - present
  • Work across all tiers, with an emphasis on Silverlight/WPF/Prism/Unity, WCF services, Java, and Architecture
  • Technologies used include: .NET 4.5, Silverlight 5, WCF, git, SQL Server, Java 1.7
 Senior Software Developer, KnowledgeFactor.com, 10/2010 - 12/2011
  • Implement the company's learning content management system, Silverlight 4.0, Expression Blend
  • Design and implement JAX-WS web services for company's upcoming learning platform, Java 1.6
 Senior Software Developer, Reed Group, 10/2009 - 10/2010
  • Architect and development lead for the company's Client Configuration Toolset, Silverlight 3.0 & 4.0
  • Database design and data-related problem solving, with a heavy emphasis on SQL Server 2005, 2008
 Senior Software Developer, BrokerPriceOpinion.com, 1/2008 - 10/2009
  • Created the company's web forms system used to gather and validate real-estate property information, Silverlight 2.0
  • Designed/implemented WCF service enabling integration with business partners
  • Served as concurrency consultant for single- to multi-threaded component migration
  • Implemented an expression evaluation / rule engine used to enforce complex validation rules
 Consultant, Bellingham, WA, 10/2000 - 2/2008
 Researcher, Experimental Psychology, WWU, 1/2002 - 6/2005   
  • Designed and carried out a series of studies (involving participants completing timing-sensitive computerized tasks), investigating how unconscious stereotypes influence behavior, and how life experience influences unconscious associations
  • Teaching Assistant, Statistics and Research Design courses, 2003-2005
  • Research presentations at PsychFest, 2005, Northwest Cognition and Memory conference (NOWCAM), 2005, Western Psychological Association (WPA) in Vancouver, BC, 2003, and Portland, OR, 2005
 Programmer, Microsoft / Expedia.com, Redmond, WA, 6/1998 - 10/2000  
  • One of four core C++ developers with Microsoft Travel Technologies, which became the online travel site Expedia.com
  • Hands-on experience with Microsoft SQL server and writing multi-threaded applications and services
  • Responsibilities included HTML and ISAPI web development, and implementation of back-end communication layers that provided connectivity to airlines' computerized reservation systems (CRS), COM/DCOM connectivity
  • Authored programs to scan travel bookings for signs of fraud and a utility used to monitor service provider connectivity


Concerts and Community:

  • Cello Performances:
    1. Schumann Madness Festival, WWU (2005)
    2. Stand-in Cellist for the Bellingham Chamber Players (Classical music, Tango, and Jazz concerts, 2002-2005)
    3. AIDs Benefit concerts (2002, 2004)
    4. Member of the Whatcom Symphony Orchestra (2001-2003, part of 2005, and likely in 2007)
  • Other Volunteer Work:
    1. ASP.NET real-time race results page (volunteer), Ski to Sea, Bellingham, 2002
    2. Peru Medical Mission (non-religious, volunteer work), Database design, maintenance, and data entry in the hospital's pharmacy, 2001

Older Gigs:

  1. Summer Intern, Microsoft, Redmond, WA, 1996
  2. Assistant Instructor, "Working the World-Wide Web", IU, 1996-1997
  3. EmlenMud revival project (Preview here)
  4. Young Musicians Foundation scholarship recipient, 1990-1991, runner-up and competitor in various concerto competitions throughout high school and college.
  5. Member of the Denver Young Artists' Orchestra, 1987-1992.
  6. Performed as a joint-soloist with Diane Miyake and the Colorado Symphony Orchestra
  7. Performed the Dvorak cello concerto as a soloist with the Cherry Creek High School Orchestra, 1992

Blasts from the Past:
Miscellaneous Publications

 



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