 We
now remove predictable factors that have predictably influenced sales in the past,
giving us a clear view of how Marketing likely influenced Sales. After removing
all predictable influences to sales, we can finally compare the sales figures that
we would have expected, given weather, market trend, seasonal cycles,
and holidays, to actual sales made. Any
significant change in sales beyond what would be expected, would be
an indication of the marketing campaign's effectiveness. We are
now able to more accurately answer the question, "How effective was the Marketing
Campaign?"
Continuing our (overly) simplified example:
There is an ongoing trend where sales have been decreasing steadily by
1 additional unit each passing day. (There
was a reason you launched the marketing campaign). Recall that the numbers of sales
we were unable to explain using temperature were +11,
+12, -11,
-13, -11,
and +12 units, on subsequent days, Again,
Please note that this is an extremely overly-simplified example and is neither accurate nor theoretically correct.
(The purpose of the example is to convey an intuitive understanding of the process.
In practice, the influence of temperature and sales trend must be considered simultaneously).
|
Raw
Sales: |
71 |
77 |
59 |
62 |
69 |
97 |
The number of sales we are unable to
explain if there has been a consistent trend
of losing one additional sale each day: |
+0 |
+1 |
+2 |
+3 |
+4 |
+5 |
(From step 1): Sales that could
not be explained by Temperature: |
+11 |
+12 |
-11 |
-13 |
-11 |
+12 |
The total number of sales we cannot
account for by using Weather or the
ongoing sales trend: |
+11 |
+13 |
-9 |
-10 |
-7 |
+17 |
Assuming there were no other significant
predictable influences to sales other than
the marketing campaign (a naive
assumption, but useful for this example)... |
11 + 13
- 9 - 10 - 7
+ 17
= 15
|
The marketing campaign was responsible for approximately 15
additional
sales over these six days. |
The result: Over these six days, the marketing campaign increased sales by approximately
15 units.
|